July has marked a breakthrough in consumer sentiment
The Kantar Consumer Index has visibly shifted upwards, making up for the regular drops in the last three months, and settling at 5.2 p.p.
Favourable macroeconomic indicators, as well as consumer declarations concerning visible improvement in the country’s economic status have been surfacing in our data for some time now. This indicates that the arrival of the long-awaited summer vacation was likely the key factor in this recent uplift in consumer sentiment. The wait is finally over, and the time for bringing all those holiday plans to life has commenced. Poles are leaving the tensions of daily life behind them and starting to forget about the difficult conclusion of the school year. For a moment, they can also disregard the rising prices of basic food products that unsettled them only recently.
The perceived access to cash has improved as well. Another aspect that affected this surge in optimism is the expanded 500+ programme, which is going to reach a wider range of households from July onwards. Furthermore, seasonal jobs are now abundant, which means that the number of opportunities for making some extra money on the side has also increased.
As was the case in June, consumers have a more favourable perception of the status of their own households than of the country’s economy as a whole, although improvement in consumer sentiment has affected both of these metrics. To put it plainly, optimism is on the rise.
The current value of the Kantar Consumer Index (5.2 p.p.) comes very close to repeating the result from July 2018 (5.4).