TNS Consumer Index =   2.

-3.4

August
2018
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
5.6
4.7
9.8
6.3
Katastrofa w kopalni \"Zofiówka\", Protesty rodziców dzieci niepełnosprawnych
10
5.4
2
7.8
5.4
7
-0.9
0.2
0.3

Age

Information
  • up to 24 4.0 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 4.0 Na górę
  • 40 to 54 1.0 Na dół
  • 55+ 2.0 Bez zmian

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 6.0 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    1.0 Na dół
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    -3.0 Na dół

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 3.0 Na górę
  • Basic vocational 0.0 Na dół
  • Secondary 3.0 Na górę
  • Tertiary 2.0 Bez zmian

Household size

Information
  • 1 -6.0 Na dół
  • 2 0.0 Na dół
  • 3+ 8.0 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • -12.0
  • Managers
    • 6.0

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  6.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    +3

  • SE*  0.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    -3

  • SH  16.0 Information

    Status of households

    +1

  • SH*  3.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    -6

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 102.0 Information

    Consumer spending

    0

  • MPiPS 6.0 Information

    Unemployment rate

    +0.1

  • NBP 179.7 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    +1.7

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    58

    -4
    Informacje

  • Demand

    67

    -20
    Informacje


  • Employment

    75

    -12
    Informacje

  • Investments

    62

    +9
    Informacje

Comment - March 2019

If it’s so bad, then why does it appear to be so good?

At the turn of month, the public’s eyes turned to the North, where events that had emerged in the previous months continued to unfold. This includes elections for the office of the President of Gdansk, and shipyard workers’ protests in support of priest Henryk Jankowski. In the following days, we also saw the Prime minister admitting that the Sunday ban on trading had not necessarily been a good idea, and looked on as Robert Kubica finished his F1 comeback race in the last position. Furthermore, teacher groups were voicing their demands even more firmly this month, protesting farmers blocked the streets of Warsaw by spilling apples, and meat exported from Poland was found to contain salmonella.


Regardless, following the drops in February, the Consumer Index has finally recovered in March, settling at 6.0% this month. Readings for all of the social and professional groups that we monitor are rising, with the values finally going beyond zero. Still, more enthusiastic moods have been mostly confined to consumers aged 25 to 29 (17.5% growth) and the unemployed (15.7% increase). So why have these two groups displayed a surge of optimism? Old social programmes for 2019 have been dusted off recently, with new ones announced as well, and this is most likely the only reason for the current state of affairs. 

What will the upcoming months bring, then? Looking at historical data, consumer moods often improved to some extent around the Easter period, but the thing to keep in mind is that elections to the European Parliament is not something that happens every year. Everything leads us to believe that the elections is what is going to shape moods in the Polish society in the months to come, as even though this is an international event, the issues that it’s going to raise will remain focused on local aspects.

 



Paweł Machała

Strategic Account Manager

pawel.machala@kantar.com