TNS Consumer Index =   6.3

-3.5

May
2018
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
4.6
4.1
Zaprzysiężenie premiera Morawieckiego
6.4
5.6
4.7
9.8
6.3
Katastrofa w kopalni \"Zofiówka\", Protesty rodziców dzieci niepełnosprawnych
10
5.4
2
7.8
5.4
7

Age

Information
  • up to 24 6.4 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 8.8 Na górę
  • 40 to 54 5.8 Na dół
  • 55+ 5.6 Na dół

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 8.4 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    5.0 Na dół
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    5.0 Na dół

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 9.7 Na górę
  • Basic vocational 5.1 Na dół
  • Secondary 4.8 Na dół
  • Tertiary 8.9 Na górę

Household size

Information
  • 1 1.2 Na dół
  • 2 4.5 Na dół
  • 3+ 10.8 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • -5.1
  • Managers
    • 10.7

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  3.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    -6

  • SE*  4.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    -5

  • SH  16.0 Information

    Status of households

    -1

  • SH*  11.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    -1

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 101.6 Information

    Consumer spending

    +0.2

  • MPiPS 6.3 Information

    Unemployment rate

    -0.3

  • NBP 179.0 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    +7.5

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    57

    +5
    Informacje

  • Demand

    82

    +4
    Informacje


  • Employment

    81

    +3
    Informacje

  • Investments

    50

    -22
    Informacje

Comment - April 2019

3…2…1….0, and let the campaigns commence

The first of the two upcoming tests for both the ruling party and the opposition is just a few weeks away. Who will pass, and who is going to fail? We will find out soon enough, but it seems reasonable not to expect anything less than a considerable mobilisation on both sides of the line.


April has brought an amendment in the Consumer Index, which settled at 4.4% (after 1 .6 pp. drop).
Looking for the cause of this decrease, we shouldn’t ignore the teacher’s strike, which has only just been suspended. Parents, who had to deftly divide their time between work and caring for their children for nearly 3 full weeks, have made their dissatisfaction known loudly and clearly. The highest drops of the Consumer Index can be seen in the 25-39 age bracket (2.8%; 9.6 pp. decrease), among consumers living in the biggest cities (-0.3%; 9.9 pp decrease), in 3+ households (8.6%; 2.7 pp drop), and among consumers with higher education (4.2%; 4.4 pp decrease). The index has dropped also in the youngest age group, which obviously includes this year’s high school graduates-to-be, settling at 5.1% (2.4 pp. drop).


The drops might have been even more substantial if not for the recently announced “13th pension”, with the first pay-outs scheduled for the end of April.  With the advent of the pension+ programme, the 55 and older age bracket is the only group for which Consumer Index values have increased, reaching 5.0% (+1.7 pp.).


Forecasts for the upcoming period are still tentative. On the one hand, opinions on the economic status of households are improving, but evaluations of the status of the economy are deteriorating at the same time. The season for vacation travels (including foreign trips) will be here soon, and that is when the actual power of our economy may finally reveal itself. Let’s not forget that exactly one year ago (on 30/04/2018), the USD exchange rate dropped to PLN 3.48 (just PLN 0.36 below the 30/04/2019 rate), with an EUR exchange rate of PLN 4.22 (PLN 0.7 less than this year).

Have a warm and sunny May!



Piotr Chojnowski

Account Director

piotr.chojnowski@kantar.com