Consumer sentiment still less likely to improve
Kantar Consumer Index values have dropped for the third time in a row this month, settling at 0.6 points. This decrease in consumer optimism has been progressing systematically, and as of now the Consumer Index remains 9.1 points below last year’s measurement for the respective period of the year.
Economic growth, more positive perceptions of the economic status of households, election promises, and even the recent sunny weather are no longer enough to dynamically improve consumer optimism. Furthermore, the seasonal surge in sentiment that is usually visible in the second quarter of the year (resulting from the aggregated effect of short-term factors) is nowhere to be seen either. This situation might come as a surprise, given the favourable macroeconomic reports concerning the current situation on the job market and changes in household income levels.
Consumers seem to have a considerably more optimistic perception of the current economic situation of their own households than of the status of the economy as a whole. This, in turn, results in rather restrained forecasts for further improvement of the economic status of households. Most consumers currently tend to subscribe to the opinion that the status of the economy is roughly the same as it was a year ago, and they don’t believe that it’s going to change in a year from now either. This lack of clearly visible signs of change for the better is not appreciated. The key factor in consumer sentiment improvement, which is potential for further growth, is decidedly limited.
June has proved highly asymmetrical in terms of consumer perceptions of positive and negative stimuli. Compared with the May measurement, media sentiment concerning investments, demand, and general economic sentiment has also deteriorated. Furthermore, the high school admissions season and recent teacher strikes have not improved the moods in many Polish households.