TNS Consumer Index =   4.6

-2.6

November
2017
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
0.5
3.6
3
Protesty w obronie sądów, KRS i SN
7
5.8
7.2
Protesty lekarzy rezydentów
4.6
4.1
Zaprzysiężenie premiera Morawieckiego
6.4
5.6
4.7
9.8
6.3
Katastrofa w kopalni \"Zofiówka\", Protesty rodziców dzieci niepełnosprawnych

Age

Information
  • up to 24 5.3 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 10.9 Na górę
  • 40 to 54 -3.6 Na dół
  • 55+ 6.8 Na górę

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 6.4 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    5.1 Na górę
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    -0.1 Na dół

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 6.6 Na górę
  • Basic vocational 7.6 Na górę
  • Secondary 1.4 Na dół
  • Tertiary 3.6 Na dół

Household size

Information
  • 1 0.4 Na dół
  • 2 1.5 Na dół
  • 3+ 9.0 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • 8.2
  • Managers
    • -1.1

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  6.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    +2

  • SE*  3.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    -4

  • SH  11.0 Information

    Status of households

    -3

  • SH*  5.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    -4

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 102.1 Information

    Consumer spending

    0

  • MPiPS 6.6 Information

    Unemployment rate

    -0.3

  • NBP 172.8 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    +0.6

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    60

    +1
    Informacje

  • Demand

    83

    +9
    Informacje


  • Employment

    59

    -6
    Informacje

  • Investments

    59

    +1
    Informacje

Comment - November 2018

Christmas is still before us, but we’re already celebrating

In last month’s commentary, we stated that growth was expected in Consumer Index values, and we were not wrong. The local-government elections are already past us, and supporters of the ruling party are celebrating their victory in the, while proponents of the Civic Coalition celebrate their faction’s successes as well.

The beginning of the month marked the commencement of a holiday season. Sombre though this holiday may be, most of us see it as a time when families come together, and this impacts our moods in a good way. On November 11th and 12th everyone celebrated. Well, almost every one. Either way, spirits were high. Regardless, another major consumer holiday is drawing nearer, and stores have been doing their best to remind us about this with their window displays since the middle of the month. How could one not be optimistic in these circumstances? On top of that, the Autumn weather has been exceptionally mild so far. Could things get even better than this? December Consumer Index values will answer this question, although the outlook seems positive. 

Furthermore, long-term forecasts for the economic situation of households are looking good as well. The number of consumers who believe that their financial situation is going to deteriorate in the next 12 months is not increasing, despite predictions of economic  stagnation, or the upcoming energy price increases. Let’s hope this status quo continues. We can’t wait to see the detailed GDP reports for QIII, as well as data on the contribution that household consumption has made to the economic result. It is going to be very interesting to see whether private consumption dynamics followed in the footsteps of the high consumer moods.

 


Michał Roszkowski

Account Director,

michal.roszkowski@kantartns.com