TNS Consumer Index =   4.6

-2.6

November
2017
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
0.5
3.6
3
Protesty w obronie sądów, KRS i SN
7
5.8
7.2
Protesty lekarzy rezydentów
4.6
4.1
Zaprzysiężenie premiera Morawieckiego
6.4
5.6
4.7
9.8
6.3
Katastrofa w kopalni \"Zofiówka\", Protesty rodziców dzieci niepełnosprawnych

Age

Information
  • up to 24 5.3 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 10.9 Na górę
  • 40 to 54 -3.6 Na dół
  • 55+ 6.8 Na górę

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 6.4 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    5.1 Na górę
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    -0.1 Na dół

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 6.6 Na górę
  • Basic vocational 7.6 Na górę
  • Secondary 1.4 Na dół
  • Tertiary 3.6 Na dół

Household size

Information
  • 1 0.4 Na dół
  • 2 1.5 Na dół
  • 3+ 9.0 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • 8.2
  • Managers
    • -1.1

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  6.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    +2

  • SE*  3.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    -4

  • SH  11.0 Information

    Status of households

    -3

  • SH*  5.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    -4

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 102.1 Information

    Consumer spending

    0

  • MPiPS 6.6 Information

    Unemployment rate

    -0.3

  • NBP 172.8 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    +0.6

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    60

    +1
    Informacje

  • Demand

    83

    +9
    Informacje


  • Employment

    59

    -6
    Informacje

  • Investments

    59

    +1
    Informacje

Comment - September 2018

September through rose-tinted goggles

Poles have come back home from the summer vacation. The weather was nice (it still is at the time of the September measurement) and, despite the algae that made it impossible to swim in the sea at some locations, our compatriots have managed to find some repose. Furthermore, the 300+ back-to-school benefit was an opportunity for parents of school-aged children to fix up their home budget at least little. That said, it is not surprising that the Consumer Index has ventured in the high values range again, settling at 7.8, which has been the highest outcome for a long time (save for April and June this year).
 
So far, it seems that the average consumer is not troubled with the affair concerning the age limit for Supreme Court justices. In fact, the average consumer is more likely to don a t-shirt adorned with the Anchor (the symbol of the Polish Underground State) or hussar wings, than with the word constitution spanning across the chest. And the recent events only reinforce their optimism. One of such events is Poland’s recent promotion to developed market status, which puts us among the world’s top 25 economies. Add to that the fact that, so far, the 500+ and 300+ programmes, as well as other social benefits, have not blown up the country’s budget (in fact, the 2019 budget plan forecasts a record-breakingly low deficit), and maybe it actually makes sense to buy into the typical consumer’s optimism, and look at the world through rose-tinted goggles? Despite the odd deficit here and there…
 
This perspective makes the turn of September, as well as October and the months to come immensely interesting. What will they bring us, when the heatwave fades, the local government election campaign gets into gear, and the government’s conflict with EU institutions concludes one way or another, bringing the inevitable consequences? Let’s hope that the nearest future does not give us any reason to hastily throw away the rose-tinted googles that we’ve barely managed to put on.



Michał Rogowski
Client Service & Business Development Director

michal.rogowski@kantar.com