3…2…1….0, and let the campaigns commence
The first of the two upcoming tests for both the ruling party and the opposition is just a few weeks away. Who will pass, and who is going to fail? We will find out soon enough, but it seems reasonable not to expect anything less than a considerable mobilisation on both sides of the line.
April has brought an amendment in the Consumer Index, which settled at 4.4% (after 1 .6 pp. drop).
Looking for the cause of this decrease, we shouldn’t ignore the teacher’s strike, which has only just been suspended. Parents, who had to deftly divide their time between work and caring for their children for nearly 3 full weeks, have made their dissatisfaction known loudly and clearly. The highest drops of the Consumer Index can be seen in the 25-39 age bracket (2.8%; 9.6 pp. decrease), among consumers living in the biggest cities (-0.3%; 9.9 pp decrease), in 3+ households (8.6%; 2.7 pp drop), and among consumers with higher education (4.2%; 4.4 pp decrease). The index has dropped also in the youngest age group, which obviously includes this year’s high school graduates-to-be, settling at 5.1% (2.4 pp. drop).
The drops might have been even more substantial if not for the recently announced “13th pension”, with the first pay-outs scheduled for the end of April. With the advent of the pension+ programme, the 55 and older age bracket is the only group for which Consumer Index values have increased, reaching 5.0% (+1.7 pp.).
Forecasts for the upcoming period are still tentative. On the one hand, opinions on the economic status of households are improving, but evaluations of the status of the economy are deteriorating at the same time. The season for vacation travels (including foreign trips) will be here soon, and that is when the actual power of our economy may finally reveal itself. Let’s not forget that exactly one year ago (on 30/04/2018), the USD exchange rate dropped to PLN 3.48 (just PLN 0.36 below the 30/04/2019 rate), with an EUR exchange rate of PLN 4.22 (PLN 0.7 less than this year).
Have a warm and sunny May!