Christmas is still before us, but we’re already celebrating
In last month’s commentary, we stated that growth was expected in Consumer Index values, and we were not wrong. The local-government elections are already past us, and supporters of the ruling party are celebrating their victory in the, while proponents of the Civic Coalition celebrate their faction’s successes as well.
The beginning of the month marked the commencement of a holiday season. Sombre though this holiday may be, most of us see it as a time when families come together, and this impacts our moods in a good way. On November 11th and 12th everyone celebrated. Well, almost every one. Either way, spirits were high. Regardless, another major consumer holiday is drawing nearer, and stores have been doing their best to remind us about this with their window displays since the middle of the month. How could one not be optimistic in these circumstances? On top of that, the Autumn weather has been exceptionally mild so far. Could things get even better than this? December Consumer Index values will answer this question, although the outlook seems positive.
Furthermore, long-term forecasts for the economic situation of households are looking good as well. The number of consumers who believe that their financial situation is going to deteriorate in the next 12 months is not increasing, despite predictions of economic stagnation, or the upcoming energy price increases. Let’s hope this status quo continues. We can’t wait to see the detailed GDP reports for QIII, as well as data on the contribution that household consumption has made to the economic result. It is going to be very interesting to see whether private consumption dynamics followed in the footsteps of the high consumer moods.