TNS Consumer Index =   3.6

+3.1

June
2017
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
-1.2
EURO 2016: Polska wychodzi z grupy; BREXIT
-5.1
Światowe Dni Młodzieży w Krakowie
-4
0.7
-1.9
0.1
-5.7
-2.7
-2
-3.4
2
0.5
3.6

Age

Information
  • up to 24 8.5 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 6.6 Na górę
  • 40 to 54 0.1 Na dół
  • 55+ 2.1 Na dół

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 7.0 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    3.4 Na dół
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    -3.0 Na dół

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 0.3 Na dół
  • Basic vocational 1.4 Na dół
  • Secondary 5.6 Na górę
  • Tertiary 8.2 Na górę

Household size

Information
  • 1 -9.2 Na dół
  • 2 2.1 Na dół
  • 3+ 13.7 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • -11.4
  • Managers
    • 10.7

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  -2.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    +1

  • SE*  2.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    +4

  • SH  15.0 Information

    Status of households

    +7

  • SH*  7.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    +3

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 106.7 Information

    Consumer spending

    -1.2

  • MPiPS 7.5 Information

    Unemployment rate

    -0.2

  • NBP 167,353.6 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    0

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    58

    +3
    Informacje

  • Demand

    82

    -4
    Informacje


  • Employment

    83

    +3
    Informacje

  • Investments

    65

    +2
    Informacje

Comment - June 2017

Has this become a fixe trend?

I’m happy to be able comment on the June TNS Consumer Index values. Firstly, June is my favourite month, and secondly at  +3.6%, the Index is now the highest since September 2008 (or in over nine years!). It’s a great opportunity to remind that Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008, and the global economic crisis commenced.

 

So where do the current positive evaluations come from? As unemployment rates drop, people begin to pressure their  employers to increase their salaries. Inflation is no longer a threat, and it remains at a healthy 2%. The fuel sector also brings good news, with crude oil prices dropping – in connection with a rather good condition of the zloty, the outcome is that fuel prices are becoming lower too.  Media moods (according to the Newspoint monitoring service) indicate a stable situation as well.

Surprisingly, reports of terrorist attack in Western Europe make Polish citizens more convinced that they’re living in a safe country, far away from the terrorist threat. The Polish society also seems largely unconcerned by recent political developments, seeing the competition between the government and the opposition as an inherent aspect of our political landscape.

But is it safe to pronounce a fixed trend? I’m going to  be cautious this time, as global economy has still not stabilised itself – we might have become used to the notion of Brexit, but the threat of Greek bankruptcy still looms, and potential troubles in Italy remain an issue as well. Matters may also take a turn for the worse in our own back yards – let’s not forget that the government is working on several Acts that they society might not welcome gladly, one of these being the obligatory TV licence act.

 

Going back to the June TNS Consumer Index results, I would like to point to the considerable disproportion in how the society evaluates the current economic situation. People living in rural areas are highly satisfied (+7.0%), whereas respondents from the biggest cities still expressed negative opinions (-3.0%). Results of the 500+ programme are also visible, as mood in 3+ households grow  (+13.7%), whereas single-person households recorded the lowest scores since December 2016 (-9.2%). The unemployed have become substantially polarised  in their views as well (-11.4% vs. a positive-value result in the previous months), just like managers (+10.7% vs. a negative-value result last month).

Numerous surveys tell us that Poles don’t like to think of the future, nor do they plan far ahead. Thereofre, it might just make sense to quote Horace, and say Carpe Diem. Let’s enjoy the upcoming vacation season, pleasant weather, and abundance of seasonal fruits! 

 

Safe summer travels !

 

Piotr Chojnowski

Account Director