Is it ‘seven fat years’ after all?
Commenting on the results from Aug 2016 (- 4.0 at the time), I noticed that our Consumer Index had not been in the black since Oct 2008, and the current government won the elections precisely 7 years later (Oct 2015). That is why a year ago I was considering whether we would see some fat years after those seven lean years, or on the contrary… an even leaner time. And then, as soon as in Sep 2016, the Index recovered again, reaching 0.7 pt. It is true that it had went into the red again for several months after that, but the values have been positive since Apr 2017. I would like to remind that this means that more positive than negative answers were provided to all the questions that make up the Index (in an averaged approach).
The current TNS Consumer Index value (Sep 2017) is at 5.8 pts. This is slightly below the record Aug values (+7.1), though still high enough to confirm that the positive trends in the moods of Poles has continued since the spring.
Another thing that I noticed last year is that between Sep 1996 (!) and May 2016 (almost 22 years) the managerial group’s moods were significantly above those of the unemployed. However, in June 2016 the tables have turned - the general indicator for the managerial group dropped below the value of the indicator for the unemployed, and the situation continued for several months. Still, if we look at the year as a whole, it becomes plain to see that this has not been a continued trend – the situation changed monthly, with both groups taking turns in displaying the higher value. At present the unemployed are slightly more optimistic than managers, though the difference is not substantial (3.3. vs. -1.1 pts, with about a dozen-point differences between the groups not unheard of in the past).
Looking at the broader perspective, we can see that the last 2-3 years were a period of such significant changes in the lives of Poles that any fixed (as it seemed at one point) tendencies and disproportions in views on the condition of, and forecasts for, one’s own household as well as the country’s economy as a whole have become modified strongly, or even upturned altogether. However, I’m under the impression that the last several months have been a period of stabilising moods, realigning tendencies, and also a certain levelling of disproportions between different social groups.
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