TNS Consumer Index =   -2.7

+3

January
2017
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TNS Consumer Index

Information
   Choose a year and click on the month number on the chart:
 10
-20
-50
-5.1
Światowe Dni Młodzieży w Krakowie
-4
0.7
-1.9
0.1
-5.7
-2.7
-2
-3.4
2
0.5
3.6
3

Age

Information
  • up to 24 11.1 Na górę
  • 25 to 39 -4.5 Na dół
  • 40 to 54 -12.0 Na dół
  • 55+ -4.1 Na dół

Domicile

Information
  • Rural 1.6 Na górę
  • Urban
    up to 200,000
    -6.7 Na dół
  • Urban
    over 200,000
    -2.7 Bez zmian

Education

Information
  • Primary/Lower secondary 3.3 Na górę
  • Basic vocational -6.2 Na dół
  • Secondary -1.9 Na górę
  • Tertiary -2.8 Na dół

Household size

Information
  • 1 -5.6 Na dół
  • 2 -6.3 Na dół
  • 3+ 2.2 Na górę

Employment

Information
  • Unemployed
    • -15.4
  • Managers
    • 2.5

Specific indices

Information
  • SE  -8.0 Information

    Status of the economy

    -2

  • SE*  -5.0 Information

    Status of the economy – forecast

    +9

  • SH  16.0 Information

    Status of households

    +12

  • SH*  6.0 Information

    Status of households – forecasts

    +5

Key macroeconomic indices

Information
Previous month’s data
  • GUS 107.4 Information

    Consumer spending

    +2.8

  • MPiPS 6.0 Information

    Unemployment rate

    -2.2

  • NBP 164.1 Information

    Balance of consumer credit

    +6.2

Media sentiment

Information
Previous month’s data
  • Economic
    sentiment

    54

    +6
    Informacje

  • Demand

    54

    -11
    Informacje


  • Employment

    67

    +4
    Informacje

  • Investments

    18

    +27
    Informacje

Comment - July 2017

Mood temperatures still in the positive value range

The trend for growing optimism has been confirmed another month in a row, with the TNS Consumer Index soaring at +3 pp. Whereas June’s record-breaking values (+ 3.6%) are already past us, the current outcome is still among the highest in this decade. Recently the summer hasn’t really been spoiling us with fine weather, therefore sources of these high moods must lie elsewhere (although the longer days and vacation season in the air undoubtedly have a favourable effect on the way we feel).
 
The economy brings us encouraging news on the rate of growth. Unemployment rates are low, whereas abundance of seasonal jobs brings additional income to households. Furthermore, Donald Trump’s recent visit was an unmissable event, with a beneficial effect on our trust in Poland’s international standing. Tensions on the Polish political scene have become a fixed element of the landscape, polarising some parts of the society, while also distancing others from the political discourse altogether - the result is that the political situation remains constant for all groups.  
 
Growing satisfaction among groups that are particularly sensitive to social schemes has had a fundamental effect on the ratios. High levels of optimism can be observed wherever extra cash from the 500+ programme is an important element that stabilises household income. Poles with primary and junior-secondary education, citizens of small towns and villages, farmers, and housewives – satisfaction among these social groups has affected the society’s general satisfaction with the direction in which Poland’s economic situation has been heading, even though their opinions on the economic situation of their own households are still reserved.  This is a convenient opportunity to mention concerns about the path that Poland is on in general, which affects consumers with vocational education, who are worried about jobs in their trades.
 
Entirely different optics transpire from the most educated groups, those with the highest salaries, citizens of bigger cities, and managerial staff, who share positive views on their own financial standing, while criticising the general direction in which the country is heading. These groups seem to be more susceptible to concerns about the political climate, demographic situation, as well as long-term developments in these areas. However, their concerns are almost invisible against the high satisfaction of other groups of Poles.
 
Therefore, even optimistic moods come with their nuances, reflecting the diversity of the Polish society. It is going to be interesting to see what the upcoming month brings, with hopes for not just better evaluations across the board, but more pleasant weather as well.

 

 

Krzysztof Jodłowski

Account Director